The Eventual Recession
Posted April 28, 2023
Posted April 28, 2023
Since early last year, economists, market experts, and even corporate CEOs have been predicting a recession for this year. Most of them said it would happen early in the year. A recession was the consensus view among experts, almost a foregone conclusion. With inflation surging to 9% last summer and the Fed aggressively raising interest rates, it was an easy story to sell…and believe.
Fast forward to the present. The same experts that said we would already be in a recession are now pushing their recession forecasts to the end of the year and even into 2024. Because recessions are normal functions of capital markets, eventually, we expect to get one. So long as forecasters keep pushing out the date, they won’t be wrong – just “early.” And that is the crux of financial forecasts: you have to be correct in prediction and timing.
Recessions come in different sizes and durations. Some are long and deep (Global Financial Crisis) and some are brief and shallow. And others, like the COVID-19 recession, were deep but very brief. In fact, most people don’t even realize we were in an official recession because it was the shortest recession in history, and the recovery was swift.2
Many investors associate recessions with markets going down. Yes, that has happened and can happen. But markets have also gone up during recessions. Even if someone could accurately predict a recession, that doesn’t mean we would know how the markets will perform, which can influence an investor’s allocation.
While many people focus on the risk of a recession occurring, I think the greater risk is how investors respond to forecasts and expectations of a recession. After all, recessions don’t cause people to miss their financial targets. It’s investors’ reactions and investment decisions that influence their financial success (or failure). Peter Lynch said it best:
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
© The Behavioral Finance Network
Thayer Financial, L.L.C. (“Thayer Financial”) is a registered investment adviser offering advisory services in the States of North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This website’s presence on the Internet shall not be directly or indirectly interpreted as a solicitation of investment advisory services to persons of another jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by statute. Follow-up or individualized responses to consumers in a particular state by Thayer Financial in the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation shall not be made without our first complying with jurisdiction requirements or according to an applicable state exemption.
All written content on this site is for information purposes only. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Thayer Financial, L.L.C., unless otherwise specifically cited. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to other parties’ informational accuracy or completeness. All information or ideas provided should be discussed in detail with an advisor, accountant or legal counsel prior to implementation.