The Only Forecast That Matters

Posted January 1, 2023

Most investors love economic and market forecasts. With the uncertain and volatile markets, our brain craves some sort of idea of what the future holds. But the markets are unpredictable – evidenced by the fact that no one can consistently predict them accurately. Of course, a certain forecast will be right from time to time, just like a broke­­n clock. But market forecasts are unreliable, no matter what your brain tells you.

Unlike market and economic forecasts, my forecast is reliable and robust because it is based on enduring investment truths and investor behavior. These factors are more dependable than market outcomes and more important to an investor’s well-being.

My Forecast For 2023

In full disclosure, the following forecast is nearly identical to my forecast from last year and years before that.

• The economy/market will do something that surprises us (and the experts). In hindsight, we will wonder how we didn’t see it.

• The financial media will emotionalize headlines and short-term market moves to entice you to tune in – so they can achieve better ratings.

• Investors who watch the news and stock market often will experience more stress than those that don’t.

• Investors that move to cash, waiting for a “better time,” will suffer significant uncertainty and anxiety about when and how to get back in.

• Your investment decisions and reactions to market events will ­­have a significant impact on your personal investment return.

• You will be tempted to change your investment strategy based on market performance, expert forecasts, and/or your personal beliefs about the future.

Conviction, patience, and discipline are virtues every investor should develop. They aren’t easy, yet they are essential for your success. As your advisor, one of my most important roles is helping you ignore the noise and focus on what truly matters to your financial success.

I wish you a prosperous, fulfilling, and happy 2023. Thank you for allowing me to be your trusted partner along the journey. 

©2023 The Behavioral Finance Network

Thayer Financial, L.L.C. (“Thayer Financial”) is a registered investment adviser offering advisory services in the States of North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This website’s presence on the Internet shall not be directly or indirectly interpreted as a solicitation of investment advisory services to persons of another jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by statute. Follow-up or individualized responses to consumers in a particular state by Thayer Financial in the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation shall not be made without our first complying with jurisdiction requirements or according to an applicable state exemption.

All written content on this site is for information purposes only. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Thayer Financial, L.L.C., unless otherwise specifically cited. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to other parties’ informational accuracy or completeness. All information or ideas provided should be discussed in detail with an advisor, accountant or legal counsel prior to implementation.

Recent Posts

View all